Are Mortgage Rates Going Up Or Down In Canada?

As of late October 2026, mortgage rates in Canada have been moving up, not down. Prime rose from 4.45% to 4.70% on October 29 after the Bank of Canada raised its overnight rate to 2.50%. Fixed rates climbed from June to October as bond yields rose, and several banks raised them again in October. The next decision is December 9.

Variable Rates: Prime Went Up On October 29

Variable rates are the clearest case. A variable mortgage is priced off prime, and RBC, TD, BMO, Scotiabank and CIBC each raised prime by 0.25 points on October 28, effective October 29. National Bank was reported moving with them. The move followed the Bank of Canada's first hike since July 2023.

On $500,000 over 25 years at prime minus 0.90, the rate went from 3.55% to 3.80% and the payment from $2,509.57 to $2,576.17. That is $66.60 more a month on an adjustable-payment contract. Many variable quotes on the board were written before the hike. A broker quote of prime minus 1.10, reported at 3.35% on October 28, is about 3.60% once prime is 4.70%, if the discount stays. Read the wording on any variable number before comparing it. The mechanics are on prime rate in Canada.

Fixed Rates: Yields Moved First

Fixed rates did not wait for the Bank. They follow bond yields, and yields rose over the summer. The 5-year Government of Canada benchmark was about 3.0 to 3.1% in June, 3.16% on July 21, 3.33% on August 31 and 3.63% on September 10. It peaked near 3.69% on September 29 and has eased since, to 3.50% on October 22 and 3.57% on October 27.

The yield is lower than its September peak but still about half a point above June. Lenders reflected that in October: aggregator reports show advertised fixed rates raised by roughly 5 to 20 basis points on various terms, and National Bank by 5 to 10 basis points late in the month. The story is told in full in why fixed rates rose before the hike.

What Borrowers Reported This Month

The board gives a view from the other side of the counter. Around October 28, borrowers posted a 3-year fixed at 4.44% from RBC and from BMO, and a TD renewal offer of 4.89% for a 3-year fixed. Big-bank advertised 5-year specials were about 4.84 to 4.90% at RBC, BMO, CIBC and Scotiabank, and about 5.39% at TD, per canadianrates.ca. The lowest advertised 5-year fixed was about 4.34 to 4.59%, mostly insured. These are advertised or reported figures from around October 28, not quotes. For the band by term see what is a good mortgage rate.

The gap between the lowest advertised and the renewal letter is the part a borrower can act on. A letter at 4.89% against an advertised 4.44% is 0.45 points apart on the same term.

Renewal Letters Against The Board

Renewal offers posted in October show how much the letter and the market can differ. The payments below use $500,000 over 25 years.

The spread from the RBC letter to the TD letter is $137.15 a month. These were written before or on the day of the hike and are reports, not quotes. Variable renewals in the same threads, such as BMO at 3.58% on October 13 and RBC at 3.75% on October 23, were also quoted against the older prime.

What The Bank And The Banks Say About December

The Bank of Canada said on October 28 that a further increase may be needed and that it will proceed carefully. The next announcement is December 9, 2026. BMO expects another 25 basis points in January 2027, to 2.75%. Desjardins expects one more hike, with timing depending on data. CIBC sees one more as likely and not above 2.75%. Those are their views, attributed, and none is a certainty. The detail sits in the December 9 preview.

Policy-rate forecasts for the longer run are laid out separately in the mortgage rate forecast, which covers the 2027 horizon. This page is the near-term direction, one month at a time.

Is It Different In Ontario, British Columbia Or Alberta?

No. Mortgage rate direction is national. Prime is the same in every province, and bond yields are not provincial. Provinces differ in closing costs, such as land transfer tax, and in lender rules, not in whether rates are rising. A Toronto, Vancouver or Calgary borrower faces the same 4.70% prime.

This Month Against Earlier Readings

A quick comparison of the main measures, using the figures above:

The posted rate is what banks list on paper, not what borrowers pay. Negotiated rates sit well below it, which is why the advertised and reported figures above are lower. The posted rate still matters for one reason: big-bank penalty calculations can use it, a point covered in the mortgage penalty calculator.

What Rising Rates Mean In Practice

For a variable borrower, the next quarter-point costs about $67 a month more on $500,000: $2,576.17 now, $2,643.67 at 4.05%. For a fixed borrower in the middle of a term, nothing changes. For a renewal, the letter in hand reflects older pricing, and a new one may differ. Anyone with a renewal due should look at when to shop a renewal.

One practical response to rising rates is a rate hold. Many lenders will hold a rate for about 120 days, though it varies. A hold means a December 9 surprise does not change the quote. Request cheaper rates and ask the broker to price a 120-day hold on a 5-year fixed and on a variable, with the discount stated against the new 4.70% prime. This is a description of what to ask, not a call on direction. Nobody on this page is forecasting. The point of the exercise is to separate what has already happened, which is prime at 4.70% and fixed rates repriced upward, from what has not, which is any decision after December 9.

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