Is It A Good Time To Buy A House In Canada?

Whether it is a good time to buy depends on the buyer, but the market numbers are public. CREA's September 2026 data shows sales down 2.3% from August and the national average price at $666,538, down 1.6% from a year earlier. Mortgage rates rose in October, with prime at 4.70% from October 29. This page sets out the figures and ends on what to ask a broker.

What CREA Reported And Forecasts

The Canadian Real Estate Association released September data on October 16, 2026.

Fewer sales, lower prices, and slightly fewer new listings. The benchmark index fell more than the average price, which is a reminder that an average moves with the mix of homes sold. Neither figure says anything about a specific street. A national average blends very different markets, and a buyer shopping in one city should read local data before leaning on any of these figures.

CREA's own forecast has 2026 sales at 444,530, down 5.2%, with an average price of $681,681, up 0.2%. For 2027 it has sales at 464,235, up 4.4%, and an average price of $689,909, up 1.2%. These are CREA's numbers, issued before the October 28 rate hike. This page cannot say whether the hike changes them. They are a published view, and a forecast can be wrong.

Mortgage Rates Right Now

The Bank of Canada raised the overnight rate to 2.50% on October 28. Prime moved from 4.45% to 4.70% on October 29 at RBC, TD, BMO, Scotiabank and CIBC. Fixed rates rose with bond yields from June to October. Big-bank advertised 5-year fixed specials were about 4.84 to 4.90% around October 28, with TD at about 5.39%, and the lowest advertised 5-year fixed was roughly 4.34 to 4.59%, mostly insured. Those are advertised figures, not quotes.

For the direction month by month, see are mortgage rates going up or down. The Bank said another increase may be needed, which is why a purchase rate hold gets more attention than usual.

30-Year Amortization For First-Time Buyers And New Builds

Since December 15, 2024, insured mortgages can use a 30-year amortization for all first-time buyers and for all buyers of new builds. That rule remains in force in 2026. The insured price cap was raised to $1.5 million, with 5% down on the first $500,000 and 10% on the portion from $500,000 to $1.5 million. The insurer premium rises by 0.20 points for amortizations over 25 years, for example from 4.00% to 4.20% for loans with 90.01 to 95% loan-to-value. The thresholds are explained in insured or uninsured mortgages.

25 Years Versus 30 Years At 4.5%

A longer amortization lowers the payment and raises the total interest. Here is $500,000 at 4.5%:

The 30-year option is $246.28 a month lower, and costs about $77,000 more in interest if held to the end. That is the trade. Whether a lower payment is worth it depends on the household's plans, and the interest figure assumes the same 4.5% rate for the whole period, which no real mortgage does. The formula is explained in the mortgage payment formula.

The Same Mortgage At Different Rates And Down Payments

Rates matter as much as amortization. Here is $500,000 at three rates, with both amortizations.

The 4.79% row is a BMO insured 5-year fixed renewal offer reported on October 13. The 5.25% row is the stress test floor. Going from 4.50% to 4.79% costs $81.18 a month at 25 years. Going from 25 to 30 years at 4.79% takes $242.45 off. Rate and amortization are separate levers.

The minimum down payment on an insured purchase is 5% of the first $500,000 and 10% of the portion from $500,000 to $1.5 million. On a $500,000 home that is $25,000. On a $1.5 million home it is $25,000 plus $100,000, or $125,000. Above $1.5 million the mortgage cannot be insured and the buyer needs at least 20% down. The premium and thresholds are in the insured or uninsured guide.

Buyers qualify under the stress test: the higher of the contract rate plus 2 points or 5.25%. A contract rate of 4.5% is tested at 6.5%. The test applies to the pre-approval as well, so the maximum price is driven by the stressed payment. The test is covered in the stress test guide, and income needs are worked in income for a $400,000 mortgage.

On the 4.5% example, the qualifying payment on $500,000 is $3,349.12 at 25 years and $3,132.01 at 30 years, against the actual payments of $2,767.36 and $2,521.08. The longer amortization lowers the qualifying payment by $217.11 a month, which can raise the price a buyer is approved for. That is a feature of the rule, not a reason to pick it.

For a first-time buyer or a buyer of a new build, the 30-year option is available on an insured mortgage. For a buyer outside those groups, the 25-year ceiling on insured files still applies. Whether that matters depends on the purchase price and the down payment, and the lender or broker states the limit in writing.

Weighing It Up

Lower prices and slower sales can give a buyer more room to negotiate. Higher rates and a possible further hike raise the cost of borrowing. Both are in the data. Neither is advice. Rate direction and price direction are separate questions, and a buyer can face falling prices and rising rates at the same time, as the September data and the October hike show together. The decision turns on things this page cannot see: the buyer's income, savings, job security and how long they plan to stay.

What a buyer can control is the rate risk during the search. A pre-approval holds a rate for typically 90 to 120 days, and lenders differ on what happens if rates fall in that window. The process and documents are in mortgage pre-approval in Canada. Request cheaper rates and ask a licensed mortgage broker to price a pre-approval at both 25 and 30 years where eligible, so both payments are written down against the same rate hold before the first showing.

Questions

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